You can infer quite a bit about National Party strategy by observing DPF’s choice of Kiwiblog content. His posting on the Herald DigiPoll is a case in point. It shows National is anxious for its supporters to not make assumptions about the next election.
David, more than others, is familiar with the hubris many National supporters have about winning the next election. It’s evident in the self-absorbed comments that splash about in Kiwiblog. But DPF and the smarter National party strategists know the party needs to build stronger electoral momentum than simply waiting for the government to lose public confidence.
National has been lazily trading on the vague voter boredom and antipathy that slowly builds with any long-term government. Not only does familiarity breed contempt but slowly and surely the incumbent’s various bungles and unpopular policy choices slowly build resistance like a cumulative toxin. This kind of voter allergy might contaminate pre-election polling - but it’s not necessarily electorally lethal. And, while it might offer the Opposition an opportunity to exploit - at the end of the day National has to actually win the treasury benches.
It seems DPF understands this and that, despite the facile rhetoric to the contrary, Labour is doing a pretty good job. While most voters might grumble and groan about the government they’d be hard pressed to articulate specific reasons for their dissatisfaction. The government might be suffering death by a thousand grazes - but none of the “boo-boos” have seriously undermined core public confidence.
Deep down most voters understand the government is competent and is, at worst, benign. Clark is an extremely savvy strategist and will exploit this. She knows National has yet to land a serious punch to the government’s credibility and also appreciates that, to win office, National needs to present itself as a credible alternative. This means National needs policies and vision. And with Key’s honeymoon over - National is looking decidedly underdressed in both areas.
The bungled health policy release was exactly the kind of stuff that will lose National the opportunity to displace Labour at the next election. The egregious Mr Ryall is arrogant enough to believe voters would accept any old shit from National as long as it was not Labour. How wrong he was. He underestimated the sophistication of the media and the electorate generally to see through his words and see the privatisation of health agenda dangling in the background. Such hubris.
DPF is now trying desperately to reposition National as the underdog and to get the party’s activists focusing on winning the election rather than sitting back and waiting for Helen to lose.
DPF must be worried. There’s still a lot of time to run prior to the election and National gets speed wobbles on something as critical as public health. I must admit a degree of schadenfreude. Ryall is an odious git. So, it was nice that he of all people has started what could end up being a lethal rot for National’s electoral ambitions.