John Key’s Brain Drain Dribble
Following on from my old pal Zoster’s Porkies at 1:30 post, I thought I would do a post on an interesting number I saw the other day when do that graph on household incomes in New Zealand relative to those in Australia .
I noticed the Aussie census said the number of New Zealand-born people in Australia had risen by 33,698 between 2006 and 2001. That didn’t seem to fit with John Key’s claim that 35,000 New Zealanders are leaving these shores for trans-Tasman shores every year. So, I dug a little more and found this:
So, the increase in New Zealanders living in Australia was higher in both numerical terms and percentage terms between 1996 and 2001 than 2001 and 2006 (64,377, 22% increase 1996-2001 vs 33,698, 9% increase 2001-2006).
There has been no surge in people going over to Australia and staying in recent years:
-The bulk of New Zealand-born people still living in Australia in 2006 had arrived there before 1991.
-The number of people still living in Australia in 2006 who arrived in the six years 2001-2006 averaged 13,697.
-The number who arrived in the five years 1996-2000 and were still living in Australia in 2006 averaged 13,257 .
Once population growth, and the likelihood of death or further migration over time, is accounted for, the percentage of New Zealanders going to Australia and staying each year has actually fallen significantly since Labour took power.
So Mr Key, National delivers worse growth than Labour, worse wage increases than Labour, higher unemployment and benefit numbers than Labour, higher crime than Labour, and now we see that a higher percentage of the population was heading over to Australia last time you guys were in power.
In your DVD, you say that, in the end, the choice of whether to support your ambitions for New Zealand is up to me. Well, Mr Key, based on your party’s record, you can count me out.
November 29, 2007 at 12:07 pm
“I noticed the Aussie census said the number of New Zealand-born people in Australia had risen by 33,698 between 2006 and 2001. That didn’t seem to fit with John Key’s claim that 35,000 New Zealanders are leaving these shores for trans-Tasman shores every year.”
Sam dixon tried this same line on Kiwiblog. That figure is completely irrelivent. The fact that we are losing 35,000 people per year (which you accepted was true on the last post) is the important figure, not how many of them are staying in Australia. Please explain to me why the number of kiwiborns living in Australia is more relevant then the number of people who leave New Zealand for Australia.
November 29, 2007 at 1:04 pm
But nnickc, we’re not losing them. The obvious conclusion is that the reason the number leaving each year so far exceeds the number staying in Australia is that most of them are returning to New Zealand, as Zoster (not me) notes on that last post.
November 29, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Well, as Rob Muldoon once said, 35,000 leaving for Oz each year is lifting the IQ of both countries.
November 29, 2007 at 1:32 pm
The confusion is easy to explain. The difference is made up by non-New Zealand born residents and citizens moving to Australia. New Zealand has always been easier to get into by immigrants so this country is used a s a backdoor entry into Australia.
The first question the immigration officer asked me when I applied for residency was if I was getting NZ residency to then shoot through to Australia. I was proud to say that I wasn’t - and up to now I haven’t even set foot in Australia.
November 29, 2007 at 2:54 pm
uroskin. When I was writing the post I thought of that but concluded that could have a small effect, only a small one (just like onward mitgration from Australia might have a small effect but only a small one).
November 30, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Hi,
One of the main reasons for the change in departure numbers to Australia was the change in the Australian benefit system. They made it harder for New Zealanders to get Australian benefits from 2001, thereby removing the security net for people moving over there, which increased the ‘cost’ of moving over. As a result, the fall in departures had nothing to do with New Zealand policy.
November 30, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Matt - perhaps. but the natioanl argument that there is this growing flood of people to aussie is undermined by the numbers.
November 30, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Well departures to Australia have been rising at an average of 17%pa over the last 12 months, which is quite a quick increase. In fact, the annualised increase in departures over the last four years (departures to Australia bottomed out about mid-2003) has been 15%, while annualised arrival growth from Aus has been -0.9%.
In fact, annual departures from NZ have been over 35,000 since June 2005. Talking about departures alone is mis-leading of course, but in the year to October 2007 there was a net outflow of 22,353 people. There is definitely a lot of people moving to Aussie. The question is, is this outflow the governments fault in some way (blaming taxes or some other policy), or would this have occurred regardless of the government?
November 30, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I think this would have occurred regardless of government. In fact my understanding is it’s happening in many places worldwide.
December 1, 2007 at 10:59 am
Any of you care to comment on this?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4299831a10.html
January 22, 2008 at 2:04 pm
[...] that 40,000 kiwis are leaving for Aussie each year. Problem is they’re not there. The Australian census shows that the number of kiwis in Australia has been increasing only 6,600 a year. It’s a [...]
February 4, 2008 at 4:20 pm
[...] leaving New Zealand and no wave of people crossing the ditch to Australia (as we’ve seen before): the numbers are small and within the trend of recent [...]
March 19, 2008 at 12:06 pm
[...] So Mr Key, National delivers worse growth than Labour, worse wage increases than Labour [...]
Possibly if you look at global growth figures for the corresponding periods you may realise that it has been during the labour government that growth and wage increases have been comparitively worse.
Maybe it’s time to leave the amatuer bbq conversation economics to people a little more qualified!
March 19, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Comparatively worse than what? China? The USA? C’mon bro, if you’re gonna try the old “you’re amateurs” game you should really be able to front with something…